Heads up- upcoming Group III base oil shortage

[Tejas1836]

A suggestion for you DIYers of oil changes.
Go stock up oil now for at least 2 more oil changes for each of your vehicles, things are really going to get bad.
All modern oils take group 3 base oils to make and there is not enough right now. The majority of group 3 base oil production in the world, is currently offline. Middle East (mainly Bahrain, UAE, Qatar) supplies >40% of total US Group III with some months reaching ~55% of imports.
Valvoline and Chevron are probably going to be hurting. Shell’s GTL plant has been hit and a Pennzoil GTL plant in Qatar got hit. Shell and Pennzoil may be toast. Pennzoil may be done with GTL based oils.
Shortages are coming in 6-8 weeks and large price increases.

https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/...raints-deepen/
https://jobbersworld.com
https://www.fuelsandlubes.com/fl-dai...nal-licensing/


A lot of this from Foxtrot08, tribologist and part owner of a large oil distributer in the US.

[TboneS54]

I've got 2 M engines. I've got 30 liters of 10w60 & 5w50 now in the garage as I was just thinking of this the last couple of weeks.

[jaffles]

Reckon there are a few ways to see it.

A rush on oil creates similar circumstances to a rush on the bank.

If we are all driving less due to dumb fuel prices, than one may not need to change their oil as much.

Kind of makes EVs powered by the sun a whole lot more attractive.

[pbonsalb]

I stocked up on oil and have enough for 2 changes on each car. Trying to be less or a hoarder than during Covid. Still have about 100 rolls of toilet paper left ….

[Tejas1836]

Walmart Supertech full synthetic, Costco Kirkland full synthetic other private labels will be first to go followed by Pennzoil, Shell, QS, Valvoline

[pbonsalb]

I did not know the Walmart or Costco brand oil had BMW approval. I usually shop at Walmart for oil but never looked at the back of the Supertech jugs.

[Tejas1836]

https://ilma.org/ilma-seeks-immediat...y-disruptions/

[jefe2000]

I purchased a year’s worth of oil for my BMW (OEM, which is Shell oil?) and Subaru (I use LiquiMoly for the Forester, and I don’t know where they get their base oils), just in case. Thanks for the heads up.

If I’m understanding it correctly, it looks like Exxon/Mobil isn’t impacted. From what I can tell, their facility that produces Group III base oils is located in Singapore. So, as long as Exxon/Mobil can keep the crude flowing to Singapore, I imagine Mobil 1 production will continue apace.

[TboneS54]

Originally Posted by jefe2000

I purchased a year’s worth of oil for my BMW (OEM, which is Shell oil?) and Subaru (I use LiquiMoly for the Forester, and I don’t know where they get their base oils), just in case. Thanks for the heads up.

If I’m understanding it correctly, it looks like Exxon/Mobil isn’t impacted. From what I can tell, their facility that produces Group III base oils is located in Singapore. So, as long as Exxon/Mobil can keep the crude flowing to Singapore, I imagine Mobil 1 production will continue apace.

BMW did go to Shell, but it's been back with Castrol (BP) for a few years now iirc.