Stock market tips and experiences

[Dlpfcb]

Anybody gonna move on Dutch Bros?

[antzcrashing]

Predictions on what causes the next market buying opportunity?

[chassis]

Congress' proposal to tax stock buybacks is one reason.

[Littlebear]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Predictions on what causes the next market buying opportunity?

It's been a very picky market lately. I wish I had bought more aapl today because it went down, but missed. Maybe Monday morn?

[2000cs]

September is typically a buying month, if you’re selective. Volatility rules. Did today’s market sell off because of fears of a 9-11 attack, increases in taxes, rising dissent (political), or just funds getting ready for quarter end? Who really knows. And it doesn’t matter if a stock you’re watching hits a good buy price.

[BMW F22]

All tech stocks are still too high/over valued to buy. Will need to drop quite a bit more for me to buy in.

[chassis]

Read Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity. He is on LinkedIn, Twitter and Fidelity's site. Good and balanced insights imo. He says the market could have years of bull left to run. The reason is that price-to-total cash is not near any kind of historical peak.

Price-to-total cash = Price / (buybacks + dividends) which represents the price an investor pays for the cash flows returned by shares. Timmer suggests the traditional p/e ratio is not painting the full picture of today's market. Buybacks have been a growing trend, combined with reduced dividends and lower interest rates.

So price appreciation driven by buybacks and more money coming into the market over time is a large part of what drives share prices today. Unlike in the past where dividends were higher and more common, buybacks were less common, and interest rates were higher making bonds a somewhat viable investment vs equities.

Short term fluctuations always have a "reason" (global events, factory shutdown, etc.) but medium to long term market moves are driven by larger factors.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by chassis

Read Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity. He is on LinkedIn, Twitter and Fidelity's site. Good and balanced insights imo. He says the market could have years of bull left to run. The reason is that price-to-total cash is not near any kind of historical peak.

Price-to-total cash = Price / (buybacks + dividends) which represents the price an investor pays for the cash flows returned by shares. Timmer suggests the traditional p/e ratio is not painting the full picture of today's market. Buybacks have been a growing trend, combined with reduced dividends and lower interest rates.

So price appreciation driven by buybacks and more money coming into the market over time is a large part of what drives share prices today. Unlike in the past where dividends were higher and more common, buybacks were less common, and interest rates were higher making bonds a somewhat viable investment vs equities.

Short term fluctuations always have a "reason" (global events, factory shutdown, etc.) but medium to long term market moves are driven by larger factors.

But wouldn't the proposed tax hikes on buybacks tend to reduce buybacks and hurt the ratio that you cited?

[floridaorange]

Watching GEVO, KPLT, BNGO

Infrastructure should fully pass this fall, just in time for a bullish market with more green day's for the small caps 😎

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by Dlpfcb

Anybody gonna move on Dutch Bros?

never even heard of Dutch Bros until the IPO was mentioned in the news

[chassis]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

But wouldn't the proposed tax hikes on buybacks tend to reduce buybacks and hurt the ratio that you cited?

Yes. Unless the tax is immaterial in its impact. I haven't read details on the proposal, only that Congress "is floating" the idea to tax buybacks.

[Dlpfcb]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

never even heard of Dutch Bros until the IPO was mentioned in the news

They are pretty big on the west coast and have been moving east now. I will tell you these places are always packed. They have an odd following with people, sorta like Chik-Fil-A people are die hard fans that do go there. May be an interesting one. IPO opens on Wednesday. Tons of growth potential long term as they are still pretty small in the coffee world. TICKER = BROS.

[XKxRome0ox]

I love to just burn cash

i had sold a covered call on SPRT before it skyrocketed
decided to buy back the CC so I can sell the shares because I was still very profitable on the trade
but after buying back the cc for $1140 when the share price was around $22... I decided I'm going to let the shares ride and see if they go back up
SPRT is down to $13 now so that went really well

[Gregrobin]

Not knowing the wealth of anyone on this thread, none of us drive this market. The elite do, Warren Buffet, big hedge funds, etc. I bought 100 more shares of AAPL on the drop to add more to what I already owns. Nobody knows, or cares I did that and it did not change the market.

Buy for long term, buy into companies you know, reinvest your dividends. If you want to play/take some risk, set those funds aside and be willing to lose them, which is the same thing I do when I walk up to the blackjack table :-)

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by Gregrobin

Not knowing the wealth of anyone on this thread, none of us drive this market. The elite do, Warren Buffet, big hedge funds, etc. I bought 100 more shares of AAPL on the drop to add more to what I already owns. Nobody knows, or cares I did that and it did not change the market.

Buy for long term, buy into companies you know, reinvest your dividends. If you want to play/take some risk, set those funds aside and be willing to lose them, which is the same thing I do when I walk up to the blackjack table :-)

Hesitant to buy in. Long term should be okay but for now, is it too high?

[Gregrobin]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Hesitant to buy in. Long term should be okay but for now, is it too high?

I do not think so. When I bought at $52 I thought it was too high, but I bought for long term. If your other option is to watch your cash earn .00002% a month it's a no brainer for me. I had a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines so I bought some more. I was also foolish and bought PINS at the same time on the hopes it would jump. I sold 2 days later as I did not follow my own advice.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Hesitant to buy in. Long term should be okay but for now, is it too high?

Its also ok to pause for a pullback, September and this climate make one not unlikely

[antzcrashing]

This is that day that you buy the market, when there is blood in the water. Don't worry about catching the bottom if you are in this for the long term

[BMW F22]

Bloodshed day today. Too early to jump in?

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Bloodshed day today. Too early to jump in?

Not too early unless it falls again tomorrow. Who knows. But as someone else posted, you don’t have to catch the exact bottom if you’re in it for the long haul.

[Humdizzle]

might drop more tomorrow.

but it might bounce back tomorrow too... in which case you'll have missed the sale.

whats 99% for certain is that the market will bounce back from this eventually'

I added to my positions in VOO, VTI, QQQ, and SPY today.

[Finn Germai-Yaz]

crazy how a country 8000 miles away affects our stock market