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11-07-2024, 05:57 PM | #8515 | |
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11-07-2024, 06:01 PM | #8516 | |
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I jest, of course. Elon is going to lose them too. Boy is he going to be angry.
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11-08-2024, 07:09 AM | #8517 | |
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that being said... the only thing I advise against in the next 4 years is holding too much cash... especially if inflationary policies come back to play
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11-08-2024, 08:01 AM | #8518 | |
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“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt” |
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11-08-2024, 08:02 AM | #8519 |
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I wonder how much more the market will go up considering the massive gains it has seen this year and even in the last few days. What is anyone's guess for the end of next year and the end of 4 years?
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11-08-2024, 08:47 AM | #8520 | |
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That's my guess - I'm locking it in. (Should be worth approximately as much as anyone else's guess on here too) |
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11-08-2024, 09:52 AM | #8521 | |
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The average return over the last 100 years is around 7.5%. Did you think we were up more? The nasdaq was down like 33% in 2022 alone. Aren't stocks supposed to go up long term? I'm just wondering what your thoughts are? |
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11-08-2024, 10:04 AM | #8522 | |
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From Monday to today S&P 500 up 4.56%. Past month it is up 4.11%. Past 6 months it is up 15.43%. YTD it is up 26.32%. One year it is up 36.67%. |
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11-08-2024, 10:58 AM | #8523 |
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^I agree. If one looks at the end of the week before the election results were known, the market actually dipped 2-3%. Part of Wednesdays action was a bounce back and a rotation - financials, small caps and energy mainly outperformed. Certain sectors like consumer cyclicals and healthcare actually went down or stayed the same.
What is good is that all this has spurred some lively conversation in this mostly dead thread.
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11-08-2024, 11:01 AM | #8524 |
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Factor in the decreased value of the dollar due to inflation into all of those percentages.....
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11-08-2024, 11:13 AM | #8525 | |
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11-08-2024, 11:56 AM | #8527 | |
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Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1993 to mid-2023, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation). My base case estimate is to always go with the average for the short term (1-yr), as a safe bet. Or calculate the reversion to mean as an eventuality over time. The S&P has returned about 14.7% in the last 10 years. That wouldn't appear to bode well over the longer term, say 4 years. The longer one looks out, the more likely reversion becomes, as a statistical exercise. The old adage that "the market can remain irrational, longer than the average investor can remain solvent", may apply also. Before the election, the market was thought to be trading at a 2% premium by some.
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11-08-2024, 12:05 PM | #8528 |
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Here is an analysis using historical statistics, which portrays the market as over-valued between 103 and 170%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ill-overvalued. Which would raise the usual question of, "are things different now?".
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11-08-2024, 12:46 PM | #8529 | |
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11-08-2024, 01:48 PM | #8530 |
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A chart of the S&P P/E
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio Then there is the Schiller P/E, which some prefer, as it takes into account additional factors. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe The average depends on the chosen timeframe, of course.
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11-08-2024, 04:31 PM | #8531 |
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A lot of institutional and program money flows into the markets in Q4 typically, so a modest rally from these levels is likely through mid December-ish. Probably favors S&P and big tech stocks unless there is rate cut talk again for December (more than already anticipated), which is good for tech (NASDAQ) generally.
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11-09-2024, 08:57 AM | #8532 |
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There are over $6 trillion in money market funds. Berkshire Hathaway is currently holding a substantial amount of cash. It will be interesting to see how they choose to deploy this capital as interest rates continue to decline.
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11-09-2024, 12:29 PM | #8533 |
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The usual: acquisitions, value stocks and treasuries. Most of that cash is in 3-month t-bills, I expect the 10-year to exceed the 3-mo in 3-6 months.
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11-13-2024, 01:03 AM | #8535 | |||||
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Sep 1, 2020: Quote:
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11-13-2024, 01:26 PM | #8536 |
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https://www.troweprice.com/en/us/ins...und-the-corner
T Rowe Price has some very good analysts. I've been with them since the 1980s.
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