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      12-18-2022, 04:00 PM   #991
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Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
These will all be government projects, they can't build 21 km of LRT across Toronto on time or on budget, never mind building dozens of nuclear power plants and the power lines to carry the electricity, oh, and let's not forget the "rapid charging stations". I have worked with government and I just don't see it happening.
We don't have enough skilled laborers to keep it running as it is, we sure as hell don't have enough to build 2x's more.


According to the National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA), 7,000 new electricians join the workforce each year, but 10,000 retire from it, leaving contracting firms and their customers struggling to manage a net deficit of skilled labor.

This will get worse before it gets better. I'm getting rich off of this (raises and retention bonus's) but it's "falling off a cliff" right now.
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      12-18-2022, 04:01 PM   #992
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We don't have enough skilled laborers to keep it running as it is, we sure as hell don't have enough to build 2x's more.


According to the National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA), 7,000 new electricians join the workforce each year, but 10,000 retire from it, leaving contracting firms and their customers struggling to manage a net deficit of skilled labor.

This will get worse before it gets better. I'm getting rich off of this (raises and retention bonus's) but it's "falling off a cliff" right now.
All of the "feel good" & "saving the planet" stuff isn't worth shit if we can't keep the lights on or put food on the table.
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      12-18-2022, 04:34 PM   #993
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If 100% of cars in the US were to convert to electric, the grid usage would only go up 25%. If we look at a car like an Aptera, then the increase is even less.
The part that I like the most though, 100% of the electricity I use comes from the US... Wether coal, nuclear, natural gas, wind, hydro, or solar. Or grid is not international.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/c...ower-grid.html

I'm keeping my E90 as a weekend toy, but I've converted my wifr to an ID4 and reserved an Aptera for myself. My referral link if you're interested: https://lz953.isrefer.com/go/preorder/a39482
Carbon fiber body, 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, built in the US, up to 1000 mile range, starts at $28k
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      12-18-2022, 04:43 PM   #994
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If 100% of cars in the US were to convert to electric, the grid usage would only go up 25%. If we look at a car like an Aptera, then the increase is even less.
The part that I like the most though, 100% of the electricity I use comes from the US... Wether coal, nuclear, natural gas, wind, hydro, or solar. Or grid is not international.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/c...ower-grid.html

I'm keeping my E90 as a weekend toy, but I've converted my wifr to an ID4 and reserved an Aptera for myself. My referral link if you're interested: https://lz953.isrefer.com/go/preorder/a39482
Carbon fiber body, 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, built in the US, up to 1000 mile range, starts at $28k
So it's not just the cars, but home and business heating, trucking and trains. Government wants 100% off of fossil fuels. In order for that to happen there will need to be at least a doubling of capacity.
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      12-18-2022, 04:52 PM   #995
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Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
So it's not just the cars, but home and business heating, trucking and trains. Government wants 100% off of fossil fuels. In order for that to happen there will need to be at least a doubling of capacity.
What is your source?
We can never go 100% "clean", anybody who says we can is a fool. Some pollution will happen to get raw materials, at least until we're mining space. The goal is to reduce pollution to the bare minimum.
The whole world is going that direction, why lose out on good American jobs in the process?
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      12-18-2022, 04:58 PM   #996
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Originally Posted by ianoob View Post
If 100% of cars in the US were to convert to electric, the grid usage would only go up 25%. If we look at a car like an Aptera, then the increase is even less.
The part that I like the most though, 100% of the electricity I use comes from the US... Wether coal, nuclear, natural gas, wind, hydro, or solar. Or grid is not international.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/c...ower-grid.html

I'm keeping my E90 as a weekend toy, but I've converted my wifr to an ID4 and reserved an Aptera for myself. My referral link if you're interested: https://lz953.isrefer.com/go/preorder/a39482
Carbon fiber body, 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, built in the US, up to 1000 mile range, starts at $28k
Over a month, an average EV driver uses 408 kilowatt-hours on car charginghttps://news.energysage.com/how-many...r-charger-use/

I'm in a family with 2 cars, so double that to 816 KWh.

In 2021, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,632 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of about 886 kWh per month.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.p...%20per%20month.

When my kid starts driving, it will be another car... My EV electric load will likely exceed that of all my other power consumption. It will be like adding a whole 'nother house of load to the grid, times every other home in the neighborhood that has to do the same thing.

Industrial corridors are scaled and designed for large changes in load. Residential and rural districts are not. If we convert to 100% EV's, our neighborhood infrastructure needs to double it's capacity, and the supply side (generation) needs substantially increased too. These are the areas of concern.
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      12-18-2022, 05:11 PM   #997
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Over a month, an average EV driver uses 408 kilowatt-hours on car charginghttps://news.energysage.com/how-many...r-charger-use/

I'm in a family with 2 cars, so double that to 816 KWh.

In 2021, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,632 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of about 886 kWh per month.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.p...%20per%20month.

When my kid starts driving, it will be another car... My EV electric load will likely exceed that of all my other power consumption. It will be like adding a whole 'nother house of load to the grid, times every other home in the neighborhood that has to do the same thing.

Industrial corridors are scaled and designed for large changes in load. Residential and rural districts are not. If we convert to 100% EV's, our neighborhood infrastructure needs to double it's capacity, and the supply side (generation) needs substantially increased too. These are the areas of concern.
What's my source? How about just about every western democracy is pushing net zero. That's right across the board. In Canada we are being pushed to get away from O&G home heating, "green energy" projects and tech getting government funding. It's not just Canada, but the US, Britain, most of Europe.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...m-Strategy.pdf
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      12-18-2022, 05:48 PM   #998
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Well I'm one of the guys that supports and builds the grid, and I can say with absolute certainty that you aren't wrong in the least.

It takes ~15 years to turn fariy talk into watts delivered to customers, and that assumes you have a plan. We don't even have a plan.
If it takes this long, and I don't propose that it will or it won't, ICE technology will have that long to do what it always does: improve. 15 years is an eternity and significant progress is possible, on all technology fronts.

Capitalism works for both new/disruptive technologies as it does for the status quo. Today's invested assets in combustion technology will adapt (improve) in response to competitive forces from non-combustion.

The dominant technology 15 years from now will be the one that meets society's needs fastest and with the least amount of capital deployed. Capital comes from the private sector, make no mistake.

Electricians will be trained and hired and grid expansion will happen, if this is needed to support the dominant technology described above.
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      12-18-2022, 05:55 PM   #999
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Originally Posted by chassis View Post
If it takes this long, and I don't propose that it will or it won't, ICE technology will have that long to do what it always does: improve. 15 years is an eternity and significant progress is possible, on all technology fronts.

Capitalism works for both new/disruptive technologies as it does for the status quo. Today's invested assets in combustion technology will adapt (improve) in response to competitive forces from non-combustion.


The dominant technology 15 years from now will be the one that meets society's needs fastest and with the least amount of capital deployed. Capital comes from the private sector, make no mistake.
Hybrids will be a good next step. We have already done well with them. I had a good one 14 years ago. 35 MPG city, and it drove better than the gas engine variant. We should focus more on this first, let the EV thing evolve naturally rather than by forced mandate.

Quote:
Electricians will be trained and hired and grid expansion will happen, if this is needed to support the dominant technology described above.
When I hear that, it's kind of like telling a coal miner to just become a computer programmer.

Electricians are in short supply because not many are suited to it. It's one of the highest paid crafts, and we still can't get enough to do it. It's not for lack of need or compensation.
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      12-18-2022, 06:35 PM   #1000
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Over a month, an average EV driver uses 408 kilowatt-hours on car charginghttps://news.energysage.com/how-many...r-charger-use/

I'm in a family with 2 cars, so double that to 816 KWh.

In 2021, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,632 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of about 886 kWh per month.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.p...%20per%20month.

When my kid starts driving, it will be another car... My EV electric load will likely exceed that of all my other power consumption. It will be like adding a whole 'nother house of load to the grid, times every other home in the neighborhood that has to do the same thing.

Industrial corridors are scaled and designed for large changes in load. Residential and rural districts are not. If we convert to 100% EV's, our neighborhood infrastructure needs to double it's capacity, and the supply side (generation) needs substantially increased too. These are the areas of concern.
Our grid rarely runs at capacity, most of it is reserved for surges. Anything in excess is currently wasted. While your usage may double, the grid demand will not.

Edit: https://energycentral.com/c/ec/how-i...ds-reliability

Quote:
Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
What's my source? How about just about every western democracy is pushing net zero. That's right across the board. In Canada we are being pushed to get away from O&G home heating, "green energy" projects and tech getting government funding. It's not just Canada, but the US, Britain, most of Europe.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...m-Strategy.pdf
Net zero is different than zero fossil fuels.

Edit, page 18:
"5. SCALE UP CO2
REMOVAL. In the three decades to
2050, our emissions from energy production can
be brought close to zero but certain emissions
such as non-CO2
from agriculture will be difficult to
decarbonize completely by mid-century. Reaching
net-zero emissions will therefore require removing
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, using
processes and technologies that are rigorously
evaluated and validated. This requires scaling up
land carbon sinks as well as engineered strategies."

Last edited by ianoob; 12-18-2022 at 07:09 PM..
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      12-18-2022, 06:50 PM   #1001
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
When I hear that, it's kind of like telling a coal miner to just become a computer programmer.

Electricians are in short supply because not many are suited to it. It's one of the highest paid crafts, and we still can't get enough to do it. It's not for lack of need or compensation.
That is a strawman argument right there.

Society's needs, plus capital, will create, find, train and otherwise procure the means necessary to do what needs done.

Innovation is possible here also. Improvements in safety and working conditions may be needed to employ a larger cadre of people operating nuclear reactors and servicing high voltage transmission towers. No challenge is insurmountable with time and capital.
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      12-18-2022, 07:22 PM   #1002
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Our grid rarely runs at capacity, most of it is reserved for surges.
I'm going to guess you've never watched real time grid load, let alone the modeling used to manage it. It peaks and falls every single day.

If we design around peak load, and the load beyond peak occurs, is that ever OK? You ever trip a breaker in your house?

Quote:
Anything in excess is currently wasted.
So, yah, it seems you don't understand the grid, or how it's regulated by the fed. Spinning reserve? Load shed contingencies? It's not wasted, it's required.

It's like looking at the freeway at 2AM and thinking we can add more cars to the commute and not have traffic problems. That the freeway is vacant at 2Am says nothing about the gridlock at 7:30AM and 5:30 PM. You have to design around the max load, and like traffic, there is a max load that plays out every single day. Those empty lanes on the highway at 2AM aren't wasted.

Looking at averages obscures the peaks, and the peaks are the problems.

Do you know when people charge their EV's? It's not when there is solar power in the grid. Timing the supply to the demand is far more complex than most realize, and we are about to upset that balance profoundly.


Texas and California have both had to ask EV's to not charge this year so their grids won't collapse. It's not a future problem, it's a today problem.

Quote:
While your usage may double, the grid demand will not.
The distribution system that feeds these residential loads is far more miles and far more complex than the grid, and a lot of it is buried in the ground so it's hard to change. Even if you could generate the watts and move it on the transmission lines to the substations (many of which are already overloaded), how do you plan to deliver it on the distribution system?

Also, Where will those watts from from - faries or pixie dust? It's probably going to come mostly from natural gas. Hydro is actively being removed from the grid supply mix due to environmental issues, and curtailed due to droughts. Nobody want's Nuclear in their back yard, and coal is being retired too. SOlar and wind doesn't always work, and we can't decide when or where to make it work.

38.9% of the total US electrical load is residential :

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...lectricity.php

There is also a push to use electric Semi's, and to recharge a tesla Semi is more watts (1 megawatt) in a 30 minute charge cycle than the average US home consumes in an entire month. How many times will it charge in a month ? 15 ? 20?. There are ~2 million semi's in the US. You ever see what a 1 mega watt load demand does to neighboring electrical customers? On a 480V commercial service that's a couple thousand amps.

Last edited by chad86tsi; 12-18-2022 at 07:34 PM..
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      12-18-2022, 08:03 PM   #1003
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
I'm going to guess you've never watched real time grid load, let alone the modeling used to manage it. It peaks and falls every single day.

If we design around peak load, and the load beyond peak occurs, is that ever OK? You ever trip a breaker in your house?



So, yah, it seems you don't understand the grid, or how it's regulated by the fed. Spinning reserve? Load shed contingencies? It's not wasted, it's required.

It's like looking at the freeway at 2AM and thinking we can add more cars to the commute and not have traffic problems. That the freeway is vacant at 2Am says nothing about the gridlock at 7:30AM and 5:30 PM. You have to design around the max load, and like traffic, there is a max load that plays out every single day. Those empty lanes on the highway at 2AM aren't wasted.

Looking at averages obscures the peaks, and the peaks are the problems.

Do you know when people charge their EV's? It's not when there is solar power in the grid. Timing the supply to the demand is far more complex than most realize, and we are about to upset that balance profoundly.


Texas and California have both had to ask EV's to not charge this year so their grids won't collapse. It's not a future problem, it's a today problem.



The distribution system that feeds these residential loads is far more miles and far more complex than the grid, and a lot of it is buried in the ground so it's hard to change. Even if you could generate the watts and move it on the transmission lines to the substations (many of which are already overloaded), how do you plan to deliver it on the distribution system?

Also, Where will those watts from from - faries or pixie dust? It's probably going to come mostly from natural gas. Hydro is actively being removed from the grid supply mix due to environmental issues, and curtailed due to droughts. Nobody want's Nuclear in their back yard, and coal is being retired too. SOlar and wind doesn't always work, and we can't decide when or where to make it work.

38.9% of the total US electrical load is residential :

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...lectricity.php

There is also a push to use electric Semi's, and to recharge a tesla Semi is more watts (1 megawatt) in a 30 minute charge cycle than the average US home consumes in an entire month. How many times will it charge in a month ? 15 ? 20?. There are ~2 million semi's in the US. You ever see what a 1 mega watt load demand does to neighboring electrical customers? On a 480V commercial service that's a couple thousand amps.
You're forgetting we have time. Time to install solar panels, wind generators, batteries... And all of those are improving. You're crying about our current state will cope with future goals with a locked mind. My household electricity is covered 100% plus I sell some to the grid every month. If every house did that, with batteries, we're good. Most electrical charging stations currently don't have on-site generation, that needs to change.
You are arguing the same thing horse sellers said 100yrs ago, or street lamp lighters 150yrs so, or lechers 200yrs ago. As previously said by chassis, with demand will come solutions.
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      12-18-2022, 08:04 PM   #1004
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Originally Posted by chassis View Post
That is a strawman argument right there.

Society's needs, plus capital, will create, find, train and otherwise procure the means necessary to do what needs done.

Innovation is possible here also. Improvements in safety and working conditions may be needed to employ a larger cadre of people operating nuclear reactors and servicing high voltage transmission towers. No challenge is insurmountable with time and capital.

straman? It's a published fact.

https://insights.ieci.org/shortage-o...21-and-beyond/

There has been a shortage of qualified electrical workers my entire 30 year career. It's getting worse, and at a faster rate. It's a quantifiable fact.

If you know the solution, be my guest. It's a national problem, and well known. If you know how to solve it and can produce results, you could be an instant multi-millionaire.

Linemen and substation wiremen wages start at over $100K a year, and we can't find any. We are offering a $15K hiring bonus, and still can't find enough. And this is before we add to the demand for their services.

the top 2 causes for delays in getting capital improvements completed, and repairing/ruggedizing the grid are :
  1. Not enough Wiremen/linemen, and related support electrical craftsmen
  2. Not enough Electrical Engineers

Work already isn't getting done. Work that has already been funded, the need identified, and the regulatory approvals ironed out.
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      12-18-2022, 08:08 PM   #1005
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
straman? It's a published fact.

https://insights.ieci.org/shortage-o...21-and-beyond/

There has been a shortage of qualified electrical workers my entire 30 year career. It's getting worse, and at a faster rate. It's a quantifiable fact.

If you know the solution, be my guest. It's a national problem, and well known. If you know how to solve it and can produce results, you could be an instant multi-millionaire.

Linemen and substation wiremen wages start at over $100K a year, and we can't find any. We are offering a $15K hiring bonus, and still can't find enough. And this is before we add to the demand for their services.

the top 2 causes for delays in getting capital improvements completed, and repairing/ruggedizing the grid are :
  1. Not enough Wiremen/linemen, and related support electrical craftsmen
  2. Not enough Electrical Engineers

Work already isn't getting done. Work that has already been funded, the need identified, and the regulatory approvals ironed out.
Ugh, every industry is short help right now.
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      12-18-2022, 08:08 PM   #1006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ianoob View Post
You're forgetting we have time. Time to install solar panels, wind generators, batteries... And all of those are improving. You're crying about our current state will cope with future goals with a locked mind. My household electricity is covered 100% plus I sell some to the grid every month. If every house did that, with batteries, we're good. Most electrical charging stations currently don't have on-site generation, that needs to change.
You are arguing the same thing horse sellers said 100yrs ago, or street lamp lighters 150yrs so, or lechers 200yrs ago. As previously said by chassis, with demand will come solutions.
You are forgetting every house can't do that. Most can't.

There has already been demand, and we are already in crisis. The demand = solution formula has clearly failed. And you want to double down on that bet?
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      12-18-2022, 08:15 PM   #1007
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
You are forgetting every house can't do that. Most can't.

There has already been demand, and we are already in crisis. The demand = solution formula has clearly failed. And you want to double down on that bet?
If you're talking demand of people, automation in other industries are getting them freed up.
If you're talking demand of electricity, I fall to see your point. We have a solution and a path for future growth.
As far as solar on roofs, you are correct. However, we have more than enough space as a whole. Especially when you factor in wind and fire improvements. A current PV panel is only ~20% efficient, but they have lab tested up to 30%. Wind and batteries keep improving too. Again, you are comparing current to future... not future to future
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      12-18-2022, 08:18 PM   #1008
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Ugh, every industry is short help right now.
does pointing out that fact that help us get it done any faster?


Thanks for bringing that up, because the 3rd worst contributor to delay in getting our grid built and repaired is supply chain shortages, which goes to your point. yes, it sucks everywhere.

Just another reason to rethink the timing and pace of this plan.
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      12-18-2022, 08:22 PM   #1009
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
does pointing out that fact that help us get it done any faster?


Thanks for bringing that up, because the 3rd worst contributor to delay in getting our grid built and repaired is supply chain shortages, which goes to your point. yes, it sucks everywhere.

Just another reason to rethink the timing and pace of this plan.
What is a goal of not ambitious. Tis better to reach for the stars and fall short than to never reach.
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      12-18-2022, 08:48 PM   #1010
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What is a goal of not ambitious. Tis better to reach for the stars and fall short than to never reach.
And even better if we mandate it with a deadline, right? Because government mandated progress has such a long track record of great results.

Let's break it, then we can re-think our plan.

I'm more of a mind to say "Woah, let's talk about this. I see some problems with the plan", and nobody seems to want to listen. < Fuck that guy, he's an EV hater...
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      12-18-2022, 08:54 PM   #1011
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And even better if we mandate it with a deadline, right? Because government mandated progress has such a long track record of great results.

Let's break it, then we can re-think our plan.

I'm more of a mind to say "Woah, let's talk about this. I see some problems with the plan", and nobody seems to want to listen. < Fuck that guy, he's an EV hater...
You're only stating problems, no solutions, so you do come off as a hater. How would you enable the net-zero goals?
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      12-18-2022, 08:57 PM   #1012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
And even better if we mandate it with a deadline, right? Because government mandated progress has such a long track record of great results.

Let's break it, then we can re-think our plan.

I'm more of a mind to say "Woah, let's talk about this. I see some problems with the plan", and nobody seems to want to listen. < Fuck that guy, he's an EV hater...
To your point, sure, maybe we can bump back the timing for regulations that mandate EVs so the infrastructure catches up. But all these car makers are already banking on the dates that have been established. Iíve posted something similar in another thread, but these companies do not have the capital to make quality ICE and EV lines in large volumes. Product lines are being cancelled, tooling purchased, buildings built, and facilities retooled. Investments so large that if these vehicles donít sell in the volumes they need to, companies will fold. Sure, itís not the end of the world, but I hope people remember what it looks like when car companies go bankrupt (and it wonít just be GM and FCA/Stellantis this time) - tax payers get to bail them out.
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