Quote:
Originally Posted by flybigjet
This really has a lot of complex issues that you could write a doctoral dissertation on.
A few overall things to consider:
6. Military pilots are drying up for a few reasons: There are a LOT fewer cockpits/aircraft in the military nowadays, so there are a lot fewer active-duty pilots. The pilot-training commitment is currently (I think?) 10 years AFTER you graduate from pilot training-- which means you're stuck for 11 years. The kicker is every single time you do something (change bases, planes, go to school, upgrade), you incur additional commitment-- sometimes they run concurrently, sometimes you get caught you have no choice but to extend past your 11 years-- it can get complicated and you can get stuck for 15 or more years-- at which point, you might as well stay to 20 and get the retirement.
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One contributor to the "fewer cockpits" phenomenon, which is real, is the increased use of drones. This is particularly true in the Air Force, and is also coming to the Navy; they've already done carrier ops with a refueling drone. Army/Marines, not so much, since much of the flying they do is in direct support of troops and that's going to remain a hands-on task for a while.
As to timing, I don't think it's necessarily as long as you suggest. My Marine son graduated from the USNA in '17 and got his wings in 2019, which is when the clock started on his committment. Initially it was 6 years, I think, but went to 7 since he got selected for C-130s. So, if he just sticks to that and doesn't re-up he should be out in late 2026.
One of his squadron buddies just finished his 7 and is headed directly to Delta as an FO, which I think speaks to the shortage. Not that he's not qualified, but by historical standards doesn't have the hours.