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      06-20-2016, 03:34 PM   #6

Drives: 2014 328i M-Sport, 2019 X5 40i
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Francisco

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Originally Posted by Flying Ace View Post
Independent Outcomes (Monte Carlo Fallacy) -
Each coin flip is independent of each other. That's why if heads flipped 100000 times in a row, the next very flip can still be heads. Each flip is independent of the prior flip.

Giants won every 2 years, therefore they must win this year. Disregard the fact that the seasons and teams are completely different and independent of each other.

Here's a more absurd analogy in Independent Outcomes taken from a philosophy book I read... If you are getting on a commercial airliner, for safety’s sake, take a bomb with you . . . because the overwhelming odds are there won’t be two guys on the same plane with a bomb.
Your posts are independent events and yet the word bandwagon keeps coming up so there must be a correlation. You somehow defy the laws of probability, and logic for that matter.