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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh
Lol. Okay debate this.
On numerous threads it has been shown that EV battery cost ($/kWh) has come down the cost curve to around $130 per kWh and the cost has basically flattened out (i.e. reached its lowest price). That's for lithium ion and it took about 15 years to get down the curve. Battery energy density has not greatly improved over that time, just the cost to manufacture has dropped. Given the mass market acceptance of EV is keyed on (a) reducing range anxiety, and (b) lowering recharge rates, the lithium ion battery has plateau'd where there will be not much gain in recharge speed or range. To get more range requires larger batteries, which requires longer recharge time, more weight, and more cost. Physics and chemistry limit battery performance and cost. As more lithium is extracted, the unit price for the minerals increases, driving lithium ion cost back up the curve.
So, the solution to range and recharge rates is a new battery technology, which for now and for the past 10 years is the magical solid state battery. It's just on the horizon so we've been promised. Yet to expect solid state batteries cost per kWh to start where lithium ends ($130) and then drop significalty is not sound reasoning based on the economics of manufacturing. Which means we are in for another 15 years for solid state batteries to come down the manufacturing cost curve.
So, to summarize, what all those words mean is the cost to manufacture EV batteries is not going to drop much by 2035 AND offer better range and faster recharge rates. That means EV retail prices are not going to change much where the consumer decides switching from ICE to EV is beneficial to them. All of this is understood and evidenced by forcing the switch via legislation.
Your counter argument with specific science and economics based reasoning?
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That’s all and well and you actually made good points but think about it this way. If what you’re saying is an immediate problem, what do you think is their “plan b” when 2035 comes?
This technology will only advance faster with each year that passes. If it took one technological advancement to happen in 15 years, the next would be half that time. Look at how far medicine has come. If easy -e was alive today, he’d be able to live until 90.
Tesla is already making a “25k” ev. When will it be out that’s a different story. Elon promised the ev semi in 2017 and it came out in 2022? So 5 years later.
Kia, Hyundai, Honda are all on board with making ev. You’re assuming they’re all gonna be 50-60k+? They won’t be.
Are you talking about long term past warranty? That remains a mystery.
I feel like car makers would want their customers to buy and dump cars after 100k, recycle what you got and get something new.
Again is it right? Who knows. Is it safe? Who knows. That’s not the point. Or certainly not my point.
I’m arguing that this is happening no matter how you dissect it. If you’re challenging this theory by fear, I have no words for you. Don’t buy one.
You can only control what YOU can control.