Quote:
Originally Posted by XutvJet
I guess I'm of the belief that minor inflation like this is going to trickle on for a while. It will go up, then down, up, down, but the overall trend over the long term is a decline. To think that the brakes will go full stop is a bit silly to me. Inflation tends to go exponential and then tail off for years.
Those that believe low interests rates are coming back anytime soon are smoking crack. Back in the early 2000s, most of use had 6-7% 30 yr fixed home interest rates and we thought that was decent. We all lived through it too. Same goes for the subsequent housing crash. It was real tough for some, but we all lived. The crash this time will be commercial real estate. It's coming.
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I think the bigger issue with inflation is that today we've got some major cyclical differences that may this bout of inflation different...and not in a good way: reshoring of manufacturing, increasing costs of doing business in Asia, green initiatives, boomer retirements, etc.
A lot of the deflation over the last 40 years came from moving manufacturing to China. We've wrung just about every dollar out of that trade, and now with reshoring of manufacturing we'll likely see prices increase instead of decrease.