Michigan may have not beaten any high ranked opponents, but neither has State - I'd make the same argument of Oregon that you did of NW. And Michigan hung in with a good Utah team despite a couple bonehead plays in the first game of the season.
I'd take State with the current spread, but I have a hard time seeing State winning by 10+. The Big House has been revived this year and fans are playing a good role. Regardless, I'm really looking forward to the game. Should be fun. The Bama/A&M and Florida/LSU games should be a good too.
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