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      07-06-2017, 07:59 AM   #1
Karmic Man
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I think Tesla will be gone in ten years

Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
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      07-06-2017, 09:12 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
So if Tesla goes down that's the end of electric vehicles? All the other massive manufacturers will just give up? Are you serious? Did you see Volvo's announcement yesterday?
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      07-07-2017, 02:12 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by m34m View Post
So if Tesla goes down that's the end of electric vehicles? All the other massive manufacturers will just give up? Are you serious? Did you see Volvo's announcement yesterday?
Where did I say that's the end of EV?

If Tesla crashed then yes everyone will review their EV strategy as all companies are there to make a profit! Nothing surprising there.

Volvo has Hybrids on offer as well, not just EV.
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      07-07-2017, 02:07 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
So if Tesla goes down that's the end of electric vehicles? All the other massive manufacturers will just give up? Are you serious? Did you see Volvo's announcement yesterday?
Where did I say that's the end of EV?

If Tesla crashed then yes everyone will review their EV strategy as all companies are there to make a profit! Nothing surprising there.

Volvo has Hybrids on offer as well, not just EV.
Wrong. If Tesla goes down it will be due to mismanagement not the failure of the electric car. Other manufacturers that are actually profitable will carry on.
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      07-09-2017, 10:43 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Wrong. If Tesla goes down it will be due to mismanagement not the failure of the electric car. Other manufacturers that are actually profitable will carry on.
What's wrong with Tesla's management of EV?

How do you think they can do better?
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      07-09-2017, 09:44 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Wrong. If Tesla goes down it will be due to mismanagement not the failure of the electric car. Other manufacturers that are actually profitable will carry on.
What's wrong with Tesla's management of EV?

How do you think they can do better?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Wrong. If Tesla goes down it will be due to mismanagement not the failure of the electric car. Other manufacturers that are actually profitable will carry on.
What's wrong with Tesla's management of EV?

How do you think they can do better?
What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.

How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
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      07-10-2017, 02:06 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.

How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
You just stated the effects but did not offer any view on the cause. Anyone can see those abysmal figures but what are the figures telling us?

Elon Musk can't force people to buy EVs (Government bodies around the World are doing that for him...). Tesla's products are good but the uptake of EVs are much much slower than expected. Development cost is very high.

In my opinion if Tesla crashed out, other car manufacturers will re-adjust their EV positioning (not abandoned, not at all, just adjustment of allocation of resource towards EV) because it is obvious that one cannot remain profitable when their product range is purely vehicles running on Electricity. One has to also rely on other platforms running on hybrid, gasoline, alternative fuel (Ethanol, hydrogen..etc) to gain a greater market share (for both cash flow and economy of scale reasons) to survive in the next 10-20 years.

Last edited by Karmic Man; 07-10-2017 at 02:19 AM.
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      07-10-2017, 09:18 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.

How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
You just stated the effects but did not offer any view on the cause. Anyone can see those abysmal figures but what are the figures telling us?

Elon Musk can't force people to buy EVs (Government bodies around the World are doing that for him...). Tesla's products are good but the uptake of EVs are much much slower than expected. Development cost is very high.

In my opinion if Tesla crashed out, other car manufacturers will re-adjust their EV positioning (not abandoned, not at all, just adjustment of allocation of resource towards EV) because it is obvious that one cannot remain profitable when their product range is purely vehicles running on Electricity. One has to also rely on other platforms running on hybrid, gasoline, alternative fuel (Ethanol, hydrogen..etc) to gain a greater market share (for both cash flow and economy of scale reasons) to survive in the next 10-20 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Wrong. If Tesla goes down it will be due to mismanagement not the failure of the electric car. Other manufacturers that are actually profitable will carry on.
What's wrong with Tesla's management of EV?

How do you think they can do better?
Anyone can? You didn't! I identified clearly with data that there is a problem and that the current course for Tesla is unsustainable. Most people can't see beyond the marketing and brand hype or 0-60 times. What are you suggesting that on an online chat forum
I lay out a business strategy for Tesla based on opinions? No thanks I'll leave that to others my interest in this company is not that great. I like BMW and Porsche and I hope they continue to deliver what their customers want.
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      07-10-2017, 03:08 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Anyone can? You didn't! I identified clearly with data that there is a problem and that the current course for Tesla is unsustainable. Most people can't see beyond the marketing and brand hype or 0-60 times. What are you suggesting that on an online chat forum
I lay out a business strategy for Tesla based on opinions? No thanks I'll leave that to others my interest in this company is not that great. I like BMW and Porsche and I hope they continue to deliver what their customers want.
Well BMW and Volkswagon are publicly traded companies, perhaps you should pick up some shares since you're so bullish on those companies over the competition like Tesla.
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      07-10-2017, 04:11 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by akkando View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Anyone can? You didn't! I identified clearly with data that there is a problem and that the current course for Tesla is unsustainable. Most people can't see beyond the marketing and brand hype or 0-60 times. What are you suggesting that on an online chat forum
I lay out a business strategy for Tesla based on opinions? No thanks I'll leave that to others my interest in this company is not that great. I like BMW and Porsche and I hope they continue to deliver what their customers want.
Well BMW and Volkswagon are publicly traded companies, perhaps you should pick up some shares since you're so bullish on those companies over the competition like Tesla.
Thanks for the tip but I believe the discussion was about management and business model sustainability not where to make an investment.
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      07-11-2017, 12:48 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
Anyone can? You didn't! I identified clearly with data that there is a problem and that the current course for Tesla is unsustainable. Most people can't see beyond the marketing and brand hype or 0-60 times. What are you suggesting that on an online chat forum
I lay out a business strategy for Tesla based on opinions? No thanks I'll leave that to others my interest in this company is not that great. I like BMW and Porsche and I hope they continue to deliver what their customers want.
You have identify nothing meaningful...zilch

To give you a head start battery is not the future (it is at best an intermediate solution)...the future is fusion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startsw.../#4ca50bcf3bee
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      07-11-2017, 12:58 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
To give you a head start battery is not the future (it is at best an intermediate solution)...the future is fusion
The past is a Fusion too - my son has a 2009. Ironically, the batteries only last about 2 years.
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      07-11-2017, 09:09 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.
How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
What the papers (just) said:
__________________
“For ’tis the mind that makes the body rich” (W. Shakespeare, The Taming of the Shrew, Act 4, Scene 3)
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      07-11-2017, 02:18 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artemis View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by m34m View Post
What's wrong with Tesla management? They generate no free cash flow or profit. Meanwhile their market cap is an unjustified $51 billion. They delivered 76 thousand vehicles in 2016. In contrast a company like Ford generated nearly $13 Billion in free cash flow and a net profit of almost $5 billion. In 2016 they delivered 6 MILLION vehicles. Their market cap? $45 billion. Tesla is worth more than Ford? Something is wrong here.
How can they do better? See above. Also perhaps they should prove they have a viable product that can sustain sales without government incentives.
What the papers (just) said:
Thanks Artemis. Now try to convince the belligerent Karmic Man. I think he enjoys arguing because we are both talking about the same thing; Tesla isn't sustainable with its current approach. What I added was that I don't think EV's live and die with Tesla.
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      07-11-2017, 02:36 PM   #15
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European countries have started the process of banning the internal combustion engine.

Is the US not doing the same?
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      07-11-2017, 02:42 PM   #16
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Quote:
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Wrong. If Tesla goes down it will be due to mismanagement not the failure of the electric car. Other manufacturers that are actually profitable will carry on.
EV's fail and are not competitive in any way shape or form if you remove the government subsidy of each and every EV sold

With a little luck this subsidy will be axed entirely in the next fed budget.....that would leave individual state subsidies.

The fed subsidy is 7500 on each car......

How competitive are EV's without the subsidy?
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      07-11-2017, 02:45 PM   #17
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The past is a Fusion too - my son has a 2009. Ironically, the batteries only last about 2 years.
Lmao do you mean the Ford Fusion
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      07-11-2017, 02:48 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Lobb View Post
European countries have started the process of banning the internal combustion engine.

Is the US not doing the same?
The USA is trying to return to the 50's era.
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      07-11-2017, 02:50 PM   #19
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The USA is trying to return to the 50's era.
The 1950's were not exactly a bad time in america....not to say there were NO issues but......
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      07-11-2017, 02:59 PM   #20
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The 1950's were not exactly a bad time in america....not to say there were NO issues but......
Love the US cars from the 1950s.

Oh, and all the aliens
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      07-11-2017, 03:07 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
Even w/o those losses, when the major auto makers are all-in on EV, you are right it'll be all over for Tesla as they stand now
If they move to another niche of some kind then maybe linger on alil more
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      07-11-2017, 03:08 PM   #22
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Tesla isn't just currently creating cars-- they're building the entire infrastructure to support EV production (namely batteries). Once that's up and running, their position should be quite strong-- supplying batteries to most of their competitions, homes, etc.

They're basically creating a new industry on the back of model S profits and investors. So, yeah, shouldn't be too surprising that they're not currently profitable. Once this phase is complete, they'll be in a very different profit situation-- which is why people are investing in them.

Nor should it be surprising to anyone with the most basic understanding of supply and demand that sales go down as the tax incentives go away.
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