Lease coming to an end....buy vs return?

[35iDriver]

Originally Posted by ring007

If you decide to keep it, make sure to get a great buyout price because once all the '11s start coming back to dealers in 12-16 months from the crazy stupid cheap 24 month lease BMW offered last spring, the resale value on the Z4s is going to tank because NO ONE is going to buy those cars at the end with their 79-82% residuals and the dealers and BMWFS are going to be stuck with a lot of cars. The market will be flooded with lease return inventory driving down trade and whole sale prices.

Your attempt to rain on our "Z4 parade" has failed.

Your theory is based on an incorrect assumption. The Z4 is a very low volume car, so even if leased vehicles hit the market it will never be "flooded" with Z4s, nor will resale values "tank".

Proof of this is the fact many of us have commented that we rarely even see another Z4 on the road. Thats a GOOD thing. Accordingly, there will always be a "relatively" low number of Z4's for sale at any one time.

This is GOOD for resale values in the long run. So unless BMW decides to triple the number of Z4s they build, I think we are all pretty confident with this.

I've purchased about 10 new cars and never owned a car that has held it's like new looks (inside and out) and that drives exactly like it did the day I purchased it 32 months/27k miles later, like this Z4 has. That says a lot for the build quality, fit and finish, which factor into resale value.

So, I really don't think anyone here is taking your theory/opinion very seriously.

[teagueAMX]

I agree

Production numbers for BMW North America sales indicate Z4 production is very low, even by BMW standards. It's in the hundreds of cars per month, with only a few thousand total for the year.

By comparison Ford and GM are producing millions of cars annually - GM: 209,306 units for Feb 2012 alone - the Z4 is a virtual handful of cars being produced it has 0 chance of flooding the market with lease returns.

Below are a couple of sales figure links, and further down is a BMW NA sales figure press release for early 2011. I'm sure with a little more time invested a more recent chart could be found. But the key is the comparison between BMW models. One month there were about 250 Z4 sold compared to over 8,000 3 Series. I believe that BMWs confusing Model Year (MY) transition sometime around MY 2010 could skewed the year-to-date figures in this chart.

The moral to the story: over time the Z4 should hold it's value rather well, and my guess it will be a nice car for sports car collectors to hold for the future enjoyment due to its rarity.

GM U.S. Sales & Production

BMW Z4 Sales Figures for 2010, 2011 and 2012 Q1

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