California real estate - good time to buy or is another bubble on its way

[Gesler]

Looking for some advice from real estate gurus.

I recently moved to southern Ca from the east coast, and am looking at buying a house (currently renting). The job is promising and if it delivers, this is where I will be pretty much settling down.

Looking at the local market, there are houses that would cost ~300K (eg in Atlanta) that are currently on sale here for >600K. The thing though is they have been on the market for ~3 months now. Does this mean its not a good market/the houses are overpriced even for CA? Is such a house worth buying? Homes that I find really attractive, either because of the features or location have become too expensive for my comfort.

There have been a few troll threads here recently but this isn't one. I know this is OT but appreciate any helpful comments.

[jlstyle]

Comparing similarly sized/equipped homes in different states are irrelavant and you simply can't be satisfied if you do.

And you can find average sale property DOM (days on the market) values for your area if you spend little time. Each town will vary on DOM and you can use that value to measure.
Typically, as soon as you walk in to the house (or just by driving by), you find why such property spent so much time on listing. In my area, average DOM is less than 30 days these days.

I'm in the process of closing my first home and buyer's remorse is a bitch and if you already feel it coming, you shouldn't committe.

Market has been warming up for a while and good homes move out very quickly.

And lastly, usually, every house that you like tends to be out of your budget
That's the nature of the human. Everyone wants better things, and there's nothing wrong with that.
Just priortize your must have and aim for those. Anything else is extra to weigh your decision.

Good luck.

[Gesler]

appreciate the response; will check out the DOM.

Originally Posted by jlstyle

And lastly, usually, every house that you like tends to be out of your budget

.

and I also want the GT3.

[amanda hor$t]

if you know you're going to stay, then it's worth it. plus, you're losing out every month on rent. i suggest a good suburb (everyone drives anyway) if you're serious.

as far as major cities, l.a. probably has the lowest cost of living worldwide, the weather's great, and there's a little bit of everything here. would not be surprised if my current home is the last (primary) one i have.

[r0wr]

Where are you trying to move to? I agree with hymen; you should move to the suburb if you want a decent house at a fair [Southern Cailfornia] price.

[MediaArtist]

I would wait.

- The FED hasn't talked about stopping QE anytime soon.
- Inventory seems to have bottomed last Winter in Los Angeles and is rising.

Both of those factors work in your favor if you wait. Also, not sure how "recently" you moved here, but you should live, or hangout in the few areas you are considering to figure out if you really like living there. A home purchase is definitely not something I would rush, especially pricey SoCal real estate.

[MrClean514]

In my opinion, it is another bubble here in CA. I would wait and get a feel for the areas you like and don't like, just like MediaArtist said.

[Gesler]

Moved in July. My job is in inland empire and after looking at various places that are optimally located related to the job and LA, we felt alta loma (rancho cucamonga) and less preferably claremont, would be the best bet. The prices have gone up significantly in the past 6-12 months and zillow predicts they will rise ~20% over the next year, and this was what prompted me to maybe consider buying in the next 2-3 months.

Will wait and see how things go. This will actually also give me some time to assess the job.

Originally Posted by MediaArtist

I would wait.

- The FED hasn't talked about stopping QE anytime soon.
- Inventory seems to have bottomed last Winter in Los Angeles and is rising.

Both of those factors work in your favor if you wait. Also, not sure how "recently" you moved here, but you should live, or hangout in the few areas you are considering to figure out if you really like living there. A home purchase is definitely not something I would rush, especially pricey SoCal real estate.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by MediaArtist

I would wait.

- The FED hasn't talked about stopping QE anytime soon.
- Inventory seems to have bottomed last Winter in Los Angeles and is rising.

Both of those factors work in your favor if you wait. Also, not sure how "recently" you moved here, but you should live, or hangout in the few areas you are considering to figure out if you really like living there. A home purchase is definitely not something I would rush, especially pricey SoCal real estate.

How is waiting going to help him? Do you think prices are going to decrease dramatically within the next couple of months? I don't.

[ENGINE er]

When it comes to California the next bubble in real estate is always just around the corner.

My business is flipping houses and commercial real estate in Houston but I have colleagues and friends that operate in cali. They are bullish on the next few years for appreciation but have been operating out there long enough to know what is just around the bend.

Buy now, take advantage of the rates caused by QE-forever (for now), and learn about market cycles because in Cali you live and die by them.

[yarviinn]

Don't pay for someone's else mortgage.

[MediaArtist]

Originally Posted by r0wr

How is waiting going to help him? Do you think prices are going to decrease dramatically within the next couple of months? I don't.

Eh, you completely missed the point and inserted your own conclusion.

[MediaArtist]

Originally Posted by Gesler

Moved in July. My job is in inland empire and after looking at various places that are optimally located related to the job and LA, we felt alta loma (rancho cucamonga) and less preferably claremont, would be the best bet. The prices have gone up significantly in the past 6-12 months and zillow predicts they will rise ~20% over the next year, and this was what prompted me to maybe consider buying in the next 2-3 months.

Will wait and see how things go. This will actually also give me some time to assess the job.

Yeah I wouldn't be pushed into buying just because of the double digit appreciation the past 12 months. That's called chasing the market. You really need to buy when it's right for you.

Anyone (or website) telling you they know exactly where the market will be in the next 12 months is selling you snake oil.

The only things that should matter to you are:

1) What are comparable rents
2) What percentage of your income can you divert to housing comfortably? (don't be house poor)
3) You know, and love the area enough to stick around for 7+ years.

Now if you're buying as an investment, those criteria change quite a bit.